I know it may be a bit early to guess what films are going to win the 84th Annual Academy Awards. Sure, some of these movies haven’t come out yet, but I think I can make an accurate guess. So here are my picks for the Oscars.

Best Adapted Screenplay
This is a difficult category because right now the theater is flooded with adaptations. Most of the movies that look like Oscar bait aren’t original screenplays so it’s hard to narrow it down to just one. “Hugo,” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” and “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” could all be contenders. Of course, two of those three films aren’t out yet so it’s hard to judge.
Still, “Dragon Tattoo” is a safe bet seeing as how it was written by “Schindler’s List” scribe Steven Zaillian, and that’s where my money is.

Best Original Screenplay
This is another tough category because there were so few original screenplays this year. I think it’s up between “J. Edgar” which I thought had some minor script issues, “The Tree of Life” which I didn’t see, but had “I want an Oscar!” written all over it and “The Iron Lady” (the  not yet released biopic of Margaret Thatcher). Unless “Iron Lady” blows it out of the water, I think the writer for “Tree of Life” should start clearing a space on his mantle.

Best Lead Actor
This is really impossible to call, because I don’t even know how big of a role some people have in some movies. Tom Hanks has top billing in “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” but is he really the lead? Because I thought it was the kid. Is Christoph Waltz or John C. Reilly the lead in “Carnage?”
So, I’m going to guess Brad Pitt, either for “Moneyball” or “The Tree of Life.” The guy was the lead in two Oscar bait movies, so he’s got a good chance.

Best Lead Actress
I’m rooting for Rooney Mara, playing Lisbeth Salander in “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.” The role is going to be exceptionally tough, and if she pulls it off she deserves the Oscar.

Best Animated Film
“The Adventures of Tintin.” Enough said, but “Rango” will get a nomination.

Best Director
“Hugo” is practically a love letter to a French silent film director, so it is right up the Academy’s alley. However, I’m not sure that they’re going to give Best Film to a family-oriented movie. (But you can certainly expect it to win multiple technical awards, which is a shame, because it really was fantastic.) If they don’t give Best Film to “Hugo,” they may throw Scorcese a bone with the Best Director award. Otherwise, I’m going with David Fincher for “Dragon Tattoo.”

Best Film
I really think “Hugo” deserves it at this point, but I doubt it’s going to win it. The two movies I think have the best chance are “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” and (you may have already guessed) “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.”